Actions and comments affecting the New Jersey energy supply.
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Comments
Increasing Hurricane Predictions (1)
NOAA predicted a busy hurricane season, thus the narrative say it is caused by climate change (increased warming). Is this unspecified possible increase in hurricanes an impending climate catastrophe? Is the increase in projected hurricanes greatly different than the past? (2) Is their intensity increasing? Who knows? NOAA does not say.(3) The number of hurricanes goes up and down, is the climate improving if the number goes down? The article is good scare, but does it mean the climate catastrophe is arriving? Hardley!
References
(2`) https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-hurricanes/
(3`) https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season
Energy Supply
Offshore Wind Turbines
Bids Requested for offshore wind turbines (1) (2)
- The belief or hope that offshore wind died last October is completely delusional. The state has requested additional bids to replace the canceled Orsted Ocean Wind projects and to further expand off shore wind.
- Based on New York state recent failed negotiations, the new bids pricing will be 50% higher than the cancelled projects.
- The construction effect on whales must still be determined , this will depend on upon location of the leases.(3)
- Whatever wind costs are estimated in the bid proposal, will be increased significantly due to unknown underwater transmission line costs and land based transmission line upgrades.
References
(1`) https://www.njspotlightnews.org/video/nj-out-to-bid-for-next-offshore-wind-farms/
(2`) https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2024/05/will-latest-bids-boosnj-bpu-seeks-more-offshore-bids-nj-ploughs-on-with-offshore-despite-challenges-t-offshore-wind-for-nj/
action
(3`)https://www.cfact.org/2024/06/03/freedom-advocates-are-the-right-whales-best-hope/
Atlantic Shores Wind Projects Environmental Impact Statement (1)
- The BOEM issued its Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the two Atlantic shores wind complexes.
- The EIS will be reviewed by numerous state and federal agencies and will accept public comments.
- The EIS finds North Atlantic Right Whale to be critically endangered.
- Final EIS approval will be by the EIS writers.
References
(1`) https://www.offshorewind.biz/2024/05/24/boem-issues-final-eis-for-atlantic-shores-south-wind-project-offshore-new-jersey/
Others
Grid Improvements
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Transmission Line Ruling (1)
The FERC issued a ruling on planning and costing regional transmission lines. This ruling was praised by environmental groups and blasted by a conservative commission member.
The FERC chairman listed four issues affecting grid reliability.
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- Aging grid (parts wearing out)
- Increasing demand for electricity
- Changing generation mix (adding wind and solar and the shutdown of reliable and dispatchable coal and nuclear)
- Increasing severe weather
The most important factor is the change of generation mix. Reliable and dispatchable coal, nuclear and gas plants are being replaced with intermittent wind and solar complexes. Instead of generating electricity when required, the grid is transforming into generating electricity when the weather permits and hoping to store it until required.
Wind and solar complexes must be located where weather conditions are optimum and space is available. More and longer transmission lines must be erected to move the electricity. Control problems of instantaneously replacing and moving wind and solar electricity increases compared to dispatchable electricity. The solution of long term storing electricity until needed must still be developed. All these issues add cost. The primary purpose of the ruling is to socialize the transmission line costs added by renewables (2)
References
(2` ) https://travisfisher.substack.com/p/fercs-order-no-1920-a-costly-shell?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Sea Level Rises
Coastal Development Guidelines
The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection issues Regulations on coastal buildings. (1) (2)
The DEP has decided the seal level will rise five (5) feet in 75 years. This is a very questionable level rise for regulations.
The regulations assume, using scientists’ projections, that sea levels will rise by 5 feet by the end of the century — a major threat to development and tourism along the state’s 130 miles or so of coastline.
The 5 feet sea level rise by 2100 means the projected century rise is 80 inches or 6.66 feet. (2) The historical sea level rise is 12 inches per century.(3)(4) The New Jersey coast is sinking at 12 inches per century thus the relative increase in water to land is 2 feet per century.
The 5 feet regulation appears to come from a report issued by Rutgers University in 2019. The `Rutgers’ report was analyzed (5) in 2021 by Judith Curry. Curry noted the Rutger report made several questionable assumptions which caused high sea level projections. These assumptions included using the carbon dioxide emissions estimate of RCP 8.5. This emissions estimate is considered unrealistic by many scientists.
Curry recommended the sea level rise estimate be revised based upon information in the then upcoming AR6 report by the IPCC and correcting some of the assumptions. Whether this has been done is questionable.
Using a high sea level rise estimate imposes unnecessary costs on government and individuals
References
(1’) https://www.eenews.net/articles/nj-set-to-release-coastal-development-rules-with-eye-on-rising-sea/
(2`) https://dep.nj.gov/njreal/
(3`) https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-sea-level-rise/
(4`) https://wattsupwiththat.com/sea-level-rise-is-accelerating-dramatically/
(5`) https://judithcurry.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/nj-slr-report-cfan-final.pdf
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