About a month ago a significant change in the climate catastrophe narrative was quietly published. Roger Pielke discovered the IPCC quietly declared its flagship emission estimate, RCP 8.5, was invalid, The IPCC guesstimate of CO2 emissions in 2100 and the atmospheric heat increase from these emissions are implausible and should not be used for modeling.
The international committee responsible for the official scenarios that feed into climate modeling that are the basis for most projective climate research and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just published the next generation of climate scenarios.
Big news: The new framework has eliminated the most extreme scenarios that have dominated climate research over much of the past several decades — specifically, RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, and SSP3-7.0. This is an absolutely huge development in climate science which will have lasting impacts across research and policy.
The future is not what it used to be. (1)
The basis for thousands of climate catastrophe predictions and `facts’ was WRONG. It destroys `The Science is Settled’ assertion and opens all regulations, policies and social demands for review. Initially, this announcement was not published by the MSM and was only made public after President Trump posted it on social media.
The five references below describe the notice by Pielke and the gradually developing impact of the elimination. Reference #1 is the initial announcement by Pielke. It is very long and detailed. Ref. 2 is a short explanation of the elimination. Ref. 3 is a Pielke interview describing the elimination. Ref. 4 and 5 describe the unfolding impact.
Infrastructure and building codes are an area that impacts New Jersey significantly. Sea level rises and resulting coastal building codes are based RCP 8.5 and, in some cases, even higher emission levels. These regulations must be revised based on corrected emission and sea levels.
This quiet announcement also reveals not only is the science NOT settled but the real purpose of the assertion is to hide mistakes, Too many scientists to ignore questioned the RCP 8.5 basis and it’s disconnect from reality. Without questions this error would have remained hidden.
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- (1’) https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/rcp85-is-officially-dead
- (2’) https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/05/09/ding-dong-rcp8-5-is-dead/
- (3’) https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/05/16/the-death-of-rcp8-5-roger-pielke-jr/
- (4’) https://dailysceptic.org/2026/05/17/climate-headbangers-crawl-from-the-wreckage-of-rcp8-5-implausible-finding-spinning-nothing-to-see-here-claims/
- (5’) https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/05/20/met-office-faces-fresh-scandal-over-its-implausible-climate-projections-report-at-the-heart-of-uk-net-zero-fantasy/
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